Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar
Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.
The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.
Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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By which metric are you using to determine safety? Going by deaths/kwh nuclear is still one of the safest means of generating power.
The reactors are safe. Or rather, they are only as safe as the people managing and operating them. In both cases (Chernobyl and Fukishima), the main reason the reactors failed were due to human negligence.
why is nobody in the pool?
hiya pat
If you are talking about the images from the Hotel Adrialana Beach webcams,
the links generating all of the photos connect to the same 2 web addresses:
meteosystem...madagascar and meteosystem...madagascar2
So every time you refresh an old WUpage or click onto a new WUpage with those images, all of the images simultaneously reset to the newest image (refreshed by mateosytem every few minutes).
Not that you'd see anything dramatic. The webcams are located on Nosy Be Island (NOS)
which is still more than 400miles(643kilometres) away from Giovanna's center.
The 2 line-segments connecting the 3 unlabeled dots represent Giovanna's path between
the latest 3 center positions as reported by the JointTyphoonWarningCenter.
TMM is Toamasina, Madagascar's main port. And TNR is Antananarivo, the capital.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres).
The coastal dot east of TNR is Brickaville, ~53miles(~85kilometres) from Toamasina.
I love watching experimentalists like this, who have a much more hands-on approach to science
Man Burns Magnesium Thermite in hand
SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) GIOVANNA
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)/Loop
click image for loop
ZOOM is available
Add TMI, Davis-Bessie, and all the other "near misses" to the list.
It's pretty much impossible to build and operate nuclear reactors without human involvement. All energy/electricity generation involves humans but nuclear is unique in the level of danger it brings to the table. Not only the danger of catastrophic failure, but the danger of nuclear waste that will exist for centuries.
Wind, geothermal and hydro are already cheaper than new nuclear. Solar is about the same price and tidal should soon be cheaper. In the short run we can back up renewables with inexpensive natural gas and then replace NG with storage as those technologies mature.
Why bother with nuclear when less dangerous and less expensive technology is at hand?
Just think about generation which has no fuel or significant "labor/security" input. We commonly calculate the cost of power based on a 20 year span. Solar panels produce power as cheaply as new nuclear for those 20 years and then will produce electricity for essentially zero cents per kWh for another 20, 30 or more years. Wind is already considerably cheaper than nuclear and after the 20 year payoff period turbines should crank out almost free electricity for another 20+ years.
We can, right now, replace coal with a combination of wind, solar and natural gas and slow climate change. When one considers the health and environmental costs of burning coal and the avoided costs of more "100 year" events moving quickly to renewables would be a huge money saver.
That route leaves those who follow us with established wind farms which will need turbine replacement every 40 or so years and solar arrays which will need panel replacement after 40 (100?) years. And no piles of radioactive waste.
I can just imagine the problems Earth is going to have when humans are involved in WW3 and noone is monitoring a thousand nuclear power plants.
Looks like a snowstorm in the making for the northeast!
lol
Currently, this year, the Arctic is suffering less ice due to warmer and higher volumes of water from the Atlantic.
Overall Arctic sea ice is being lost to warmer air temperatures. We're observing much more warming at the pole than other parts of the globe. And that's exactly what one would expect with a "thicker blanket of insulation". Greenhouse gases are trapping heat that would normally be lost during the dark months.
Look at the low number of new nighttime low records. Something is holding in heat when it would normally be leaking out.
We've got multiple factors working on ridding the Arctic of sea ice. Warmer air, warmer water coming in from southern waters, stronger storms (more energy in the system) breaking up the ice, and more exposed water (less heat reflected back into space and more heat stored in the water).
Think about that punch bowl. Someone turned up the room heat. Someone is pouring in warmer ginger ale. And someone else is busy stirring the bowl. Should anyone be surprised when the ice melts?
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you....
looks good keep weakening
WTXS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCP MIL 12S SIO 120213131718
2012021312 12S GIOVANNA 010 01 250 12 SATL 020
T000 187S 0515E 125 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 190S 0487E 105
T024 198S 0459E 055
T036 212S 0433E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 223S 0413E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 236S 0388E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 238S 0373E 040
T120 239S 0350E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 50.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.
//
1212020718 126S 717E 15
1212020800 128S 711E 15
1212020806 130S 705E 15
1212020812 133S 693E 15
1212020818 136S 682E 25
1212020900 139S 671E 30
1212020906 139S 661E 30
1212020912 140S 654E 35
1212020918 144S 644E 45
1212021000 148S 636E 50
1212021006 154S 624E 55
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
NNNN
TPXS10 PGTW 131821
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
B. 13/1730Z
C. 19.0S
D. 50.2E
E. ONE/MET7
F. T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDED
6.0, PT 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1232Z 18.8S 51.2E SSMI
HOUGH
912
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZFEB2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZFEB2012//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131551ZFEB2012//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO,
MADAGASCAR, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125
KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 131500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
100.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131209Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. RECENT
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND SHOW WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006 MB. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES INDICATE 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 131600) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
Is this what counts as a "recovery" these days? An average rate of rise over a several day period that is similar to the long-term average rate of rise in January? Sea ice extent increased to the record low threshold... it's recovered!
5.3
and a 4.3
Wow.
...
.............
2011 not only verified the 2010 down anomaly, but exceeded it.
Last year, the sea ice volume anomaly ended being 2500km below the 2007 down anomaly.
If we are 3000km below the 2007 line currently, then it is reasonable that we are on pace to lose 500km or more again this year.
Now that the volume has been decreased so much that it is almost linearly correlated to area, the albedo feedback can increase much more rapidly than it has in the past.
Fortunately, it will likely still be a few decades before the CO2 gets high enough to kill continental snow packs, but that may be the next benchmark after the first complete summer sea ice meltdown. I suppose this will change average winter time albedo in the N. Hemisphere by perhaps a point or more, eventually.
If you change average albedo by 1 point you change forcing by about 10 watts.
Divide by 4.7, that gives roughly 2.1C temperature increase from albedo alone...if it changes by just 1 point for the planetary average...
So as you can see, losing those snowpacks across all those continents will cause far, far more positive feedback than the CO2 itself.
Look at snowpack
Imagine if 10% of the average snowpack disappeared.
Imagine if...50% of it disappeared 35N to 60N.
now upped to 5.5 wow.
.............
Ok..
lol my image wasn't working so I modified the comment...
T-numbers are running 6.2, 6.0, 6.0, meaning that Giovanna will make landfall with winds near 135-140 mph.
Last time an earthquake of that magnitude hit that part of california was around 8-12 months ago.
I fear the most for the flooding that will occur. My prayers go to them.
For those who like costumed pets check out stltoday.com for pics of Soulard Mardi Gras Pet Parade.
It's probably going to make landfall around that intensity, unfortunately. All we can do is pray for the people of Madagascar.
So far no reported damage. (I live close to the epicenter and the local radio station has been getting a lot of calls.)
Someone about four miles from me called in to say that their mobile home shook badly. My house's foundation is embedded in rock and I felt nothing.
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