Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar
Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.
The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.
Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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So far no reported damage. (I live close to the epicenter and the local radio station has been getting a lot of calls.)
Someone about four miles from me called in to say that their mobile home shook badly. My house's foundation is embedded in rock and I felt nothing.
Yikes. :/
One thing that strikes me is that Giovanna seems to be a very slow mover, and that, unfortunately means lots of time for lots of rain to fall. Lots and lots and lots of rain--over a mostly hilly and denuded landscape.
Not to sound apocryphal, but this is going to be a major flooding event.
Snowstorm now forecasted on 4 models on Sunday for the mid-Atlantic....
Don't take my word for it ask Minnesota Mike or 1911Maker (if they have spent much time on a frozen body of water) or anyone who has spent a lot of time on the ice.
Btw the larger the body of water the bigger the problem when surrounded mostly by land
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Current Intensity Analysis
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 19:07:19 S Lon : 49:55:54 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 921.2mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.0 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -45.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 200km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.8 degrees
I am worried about that and two other things,
I am worried on the fact that there is alot of mountainous terrain and too much rain can cause mudslides (or landslides im not sure)
I just hope everyone there is secure or at least more then a half got to atleast the western part of Madagascar to seek refuge.
lol
I do too but it's SNOW! There hasn't been enough so far so I could do with one weekend of being snowed in....
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you..."
It doesn't except to demonstrate the extent of the area that Giovanna is affecting.
Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours. The timing of the JTWC's public advisories is restricted by "agreements between sovereign nations" giving local weather services first say and more frequent say.
And those local sovereign nations' weather advisories&forecasts are only so-so. Not their fault: small and/or underdeveloped nations ain't got the multi-billion dollars to build&operate computer centers to handle all of the incoming data. Which leaves them guesstimating the latest conditions and making forecasts based on hours-old info provided by the LARGE FirstWorld weather services.
Admittedly it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing public updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update.
It's entirely too warm for that. Temperatures will be in the 50s here in North Carolina all the way up to D.C.
Right now they are but Sunday they might not be....
That IS for Sunday.
Mine--
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.
Washington, D.C.--
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
there are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna then the JTWC.
:D GFS says 47 for me, NWS 52. i expect the NWS will low theirs a few degrees until it is very close to the GFS temperature. seems they always fall into line with GFS on temperature when its close..
maybe it would snow some in the morning when its freezing, then change to rain during the day. i would hope to have some thunderstorms but i gotta wait for that
This is mine:
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 45.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30.
We have landfall.
Thats with no low pumping in cold air off the coast, if the forecast changes you could see them fall. However nothing on the GFS is showing that happening.
In this case, the GFS is the outlier....
S. Atlantic cold anomaly is more than offset by the warm anomalys.
Warm anomaly grew in both the Gulf and the Nw. Atlantic.
Pacific side seems to have warmed "slightly" from top to bottom.
145 mph winds.
Strongest landfall since Nalgae (September 2011). Strongest storm since Nalgae also. Excluding Nalgae, you have to go all the way back to Nanmandol in August to find another stronger cyclone and landfall. (Hilary peaked at 125kts in September though)
2011 was really a boring year when it came to strong cyclones. 2012 isn't shaping up to be a strong storm year either.
Dvorak numbers still support Category 4 hurricane status at this moment.
Current Temperature: 24°C
High: 29°C | Low: 25°C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24°C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h
Updated Mon, 13 Feb 2012 8:59 pm EAT
when is this?????
overland significanly weaker and continues to weaken
Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.
la nina dying wont help if we get el nino forgot about getting a cat 5 although andrew was a lucky case if we get neutral expect 13 to 16 storms and maybe something strong
18Z run:
12Z run: (same time)
a big BOOM would mean bad news after the winter we've been having..
If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.
El Nino is great for 140kts or more cyclones. During an El Nino year there are tons of category 5 cyclones in the pacific. The atlantic will go bust, but the other basins usually light up in place.
Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.
convert that to mph/kts please :)
Special weather summary message for Newfoundland and Labrador issued
by Environment Canada at 3:50 PM NST Monday 13 February 2012.
An intense storm system developed south of Nova Scotia on Saturday
and tracked northward into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sunday.
This storm affected the entire province. Heavy rain and hurricane
force wind gusts caused flooding and power outages over parts of the
island.
The following are updated unofficial rainfall (millimetres) amounts
as of 8:30 AM NST Monday observed at:
Logy bay .............................93.0 mm
Pippy park .............................72.0 mm
St. John's airport............................70.2 mm
Wreckhouse .............................53.2 mm
Port aux Basques .............................34.0 mm
Burgeo .............................30.5 mm
St. Lawrence .............................26.3 mm
Argentia .............................26.1 mm
Bonavista .............................25.6 mm
Cape Race .............................22.5 mm
Terra Nova park .............................21.8 mm
Gander .............................19.6 mm
The following are updated unofficial maximum wind observations:
Wreckhouse .................................148 km/h
Note..The wind equipment at Wreckhouse failed at the peak of the
storm.
Sagona Island.................................139 km/h
Bell island lighthouse private station .......129 km/h
Burgeo........................................124 km/h
St. Anthony...................................122 km/h
Daniel's Harbour..............................120 km/h
Stephenville airport..........................120 km/h
Twillingate...................................119 km/h
Bonavista.....................................117 km/h
Port aux Basques..............................115 km/h
Argentia......................................107 km/h
Cape Race.....................................107 km/h
St. John's airport............................107 km/h
Winterland .................................107 km/h
St. Lawrence..................................106 km/h
Deer Lake airport..............................90 km/h
End/
I really hope so!!
They're not my numbers, they're the NWS's. :)
65 (kph / mph) = 40.3891275 MPH. Tropical storm force conditions being reported....
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