Giovanna hits Madagascar; major damage likely
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna powered ashore along the east coast of Madagascar as a destructive Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC last night. Winds at the coastal city of Tamatave, 70 miles north-northeast of where the center came ashore, peaked at 52 mph, gusting to 71 mph. Giovanna is moving west across the island at 17 mph, and passed just south of the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm at 8 am local time Tuesday morning. The eyewall missed Antananarivo , and the peak winds in the city were 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Microwave satellite imagery from the Navy Research Lab in Monterrey showed that Giovanna had rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour at landfall, and it is likely that the storm dumped 5 - 10 inches of rain along much of its path. The heaviest rains fell on deforested mountain slopes that drain into some of the most densely populated regions on the island, so major flood damage is likely. Heavy wind and storm surge damage undoubtedly occurred where the core of the storm hit the island, as well.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 7:15 UTC Tuesday February 14, 2012. Seven hours previous to this time, Giovanna was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds, but had probably weakened to a Category 1 storm by the time this picture was taken. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Madagascar has significantly weaken Giovanna, and the cyclone will move into the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm later today. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Giovanna may reintensify over water, and swing around and pass very close to the south tip of Madagascar early next week. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar this weekend.
Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 02:44 UTC Tuesday, February 14, 2012. The cyclone was still a well-organized Category 2 storm at this time, five hours after landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Jeff Masters
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SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
330 PM CST TUE FEB 14 2012
.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA SW TO 26N91W WILL
MOVE TO THE FAR NE GULF WED AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF N OF 26N THROUGH WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT...AND REACH FROM MISSISSIPPI TO NE MEXICO
THU...THEN STALL FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ FRI AND SAT.
LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF
SAT...THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA LATE SAT
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT SW TO 24N89W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THE LOW WILL TRACK NE TO ACROSS THE SE U.S. ON SUN WITH COLD
FRONT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 24N85W TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS
HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR NW GULF.
Posted on February 14, 2012
Link
its a week day, school tomorrow...
i dont like the falcons because they are in same divison as my Saints.
Being from a navy family, none of those ships are where anyone thinks they are.
Fukushima and Chernobyl compared (facts table): Link
For sure BBC won't publish the real locations.... But let them believe it.... (Iran)
U.S. naval carrier group positioned closer to Iran
Posted on February 14, 2012
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Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 18 Comments: 5648
GRAPHIC VIOLENCE GORE
NWS from noaa.gov site for washington d.c. has snow on sunday now!!!!
LOL the life of a weather geek...
happy single's awareness day everyone!
well im from wilmington, nc lived there for 25 years just moved up to washington 3 weeks ago!! miss wilmington but love D.C. so far
LOL! :\
>> UPDATE: M6.2 quake hits after M5.5 in nearly same location (SOURCE) <<
>> UPDATE II: Expert: M7.0 quake can cause Spent Fuel Pool No. 4 to collapse New study warns fault nearby Daiichi plant ipped open9 on 3/11; 70% chance of big quake this year (SOURCE) <<
Title: Earthquake Information
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency
Date: Feb 13, 2012
195,000,000 Bq/L of cesium detected in Unit No. 3 turbine building Basement is filled 10 feet deep with this highly radioactive water No testing for strontium
Published: February 13th, 2012 at 11:22 pm ET
By ENENews
Title: Result of nuclide analysis of the accumulated water on the basement of Turbine Building 3U and 4U Fukushima Daiichi NPS
Source: Tepco
Date: Feb 13, 2012
Reactor No. 3 Turbine Building
Cs-134 @ 85,000 Bq/cm3
Cs-137 @ 110,000 Bq/cm3
Total Cesium @ 195,000 Bq/cm3 or 195 million Bq/liter
Water depth in building is 3.012 meters
Link
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP IS NOW CANCELLED
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.3S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.
Gale Force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
65 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
Organization remains same in past 6 hours. Convection past 12 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis. Associated vertical shear remains minimal. Sea surface temperature around 28C.
Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on dT. CI is based on constraints of not being
More than 1.O t-number higher than DT.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a southwest movement with no further intensification.
Forecast and Intensity:
=======================
12 HRS: 22.1S 177.1W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.0S 177.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 15 2012
=====================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1001 hPa) located at 14.7S 86.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.6S 83.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 81.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 77.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.5S 74.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
Additional Information
=======================
It is difficult to localize the low level circulation center at this time, but a small cluster persists over the estimated center of the system that seems to undergo a moderate east-northeasterly wind shear. 1554 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation is weak and weakly extended.
System might continue to track rapidly then more slowly west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures existing in the south.
Available numerical weather prediction models poorly analyze this low and do not forecast significant deepening within the next few days despite rather good environmental conditions in the upper level. Very poor equatorward low level inflow seems to be the missing ingredient for intensification. Otherwise a moderate easterly to north-easterly vertical wind shear persists more or less throughout the forecast period.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 15 2012
================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 21.3S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 22.5S 41.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.9E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 24.5S 37.5E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.1S 35.3E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
=====================
Ex-giovanna seems to go along the western coast of Madagascar by tracking south-westward, but now low level circulation center is difficult to localize (over sea near Andranopasy). Deep convection is developing over sea northwest of the system. System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion Island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).
Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west-southwestward track and even a southeastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.
This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.
On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.
The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
And another funny hurricane pic....
Source: Japan Times
Date: Feb. 15, 2012
Saitama Gov. Kiyoshi Ueda wants to see Tokyo Electric Power Co. held criminally responsible for the Fukushima nuclear crisis.
At a regular news conference, he sharply criticized the utility and questioned why nobody in Tepco has been arrested.
Gov. Ueda:
Tepco has caused this big trouble to everyone under the sun and nobody has been arrested. I want to ask, Doesnt anyone (in Tepco) want to turn themselves in?
Some people would be arrested if gas tanks explode or a fire breaks out in a department store
Posted by Mochizuki on February 14th,
The Minamisoma blogger wrote about reactor 2.
She comments reactor2 is actually being heated.
Now I talked on the phone with a nuclear worker and a former nuclear worker.
In short, if it goes up to 600~700, reactor 2 will explode.
News said the heating gauge showed over 300
However, reactor 2 is not under control.
What we must worry about is not the explosion of reactor2.
The Fukushima worker talked, if reactor2 keeps being heated, it gets exploded and it will cause explosion of reactor 1, 3 and 4.
The former Fukushima worker had lots of license as an engineer.
He told the managers that he wants to quit but they didnt even listen to him.
Moreover, the manager called other managers and tried to persuade him.
They put 1.6 million yen on the table and said get back to work.
He didnt take it and said no.
One of the managers was still sane, said if you want to quit, just leave, you are still young.
He was fired immediately after that.
The former worker wasn%u2019t even paid for the last month.
The managers only said to him, dont need to come back as of tomorrow.
His monthly salary was only 180,000JPY after tax.
They are not paid much as people think.
From April to June, 200 workers died in total.
They died for various reasons such as forgetting to change the filter of the mask etc..
In a break time, they smoked,
stood up to get back to work,
found someone still sitting and said hello to find him dead..
but those people are not sent back to the families.
Because the dead bodies are too irradiated.
Put in concrete, sent to J-village, and no one knows how they are treated after that.
They are working to death to stop reactor2 getting heated more.
We must respect dead man
LOL, I could ask my dad, but his answer to all classified things is "I cannot confirm or deny the exsistence of yada yada yada."
Yeah, the models were crazy with Lee. All over the place...
I live in Rocky Point.
cool, i used to go hunting up that way some off hwy 53 at my cousins house, love the country!!! big city now though, OH LAWD!!
are there alot of rocks
Nope, there's a lot of trees and deer though. :P
haha its more like a flat swampy area, its in southeastern n.c. no rocks here, beside the crack rock!! in and around 17th street wilmington
You sure?
That's my new desktop background!
Sources? This is hearsay, rumor, unsubstantiated.
Tropics going wild in comment 294.
Map reminds me of the "spotted atrocious"
Comment 282
I guess that's what they call the spaghetti models? ;)
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