Giovanna hits Madagascar; major damage likely
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna powered ashore along the east coast of Madagascar as a destructive Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at 22 UTC last night. Winds at the coastal city of Tamatave, 70 miles north-northeast of where the center came ashore, peaked at 52 mph, gusting to 71 mph. Giovanna is moving west across the island at 17 mph, and passed just south of the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm at 8 am local time Tuesday morning. The eyewall missed Antananarivo , and the peak winds in the city were 38 mph, gusting to 55 mph. Microwave satellite imagery from the Navy Research Lab in Monterrey showed that Giovanna had rainfall rates of up to one inch per hour at landfall, and it is likely that the storm dumped 5 - 10 inches of rain along much of its path. The heaviest rains fell on deforested mountain slopes that drain into some of the most densely populated regions on the island, so major flood damage is likely. Heavy wind and storm surge damage undoubtedly occurred where the core of the storm hit the island, as well.
Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna over Madagascar, taken at 7:15 UTC Tuesday February 14, 2012. Seven hours previous to this time, Giovanna was a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds, but had probably weakened to a Category 1 storm by the time this picture was taken. Image credit: NASA.
The forecast
Passage over the rugged terrain of Madagascar has significantly weaken Giovanna, and the cyclone will move into the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique as a tropical storm later today. Latest computer model forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Giovanna may reintensify over water, and swing around and pass very close to the south tip of Madagascar early next week. Meanwhile, Madagascar must also keep an eye on Tropical Cyclone Thirteen, which is gathering strength over the waters to the east of the island, and is on a course that will bring it close to Madagascar this weekend.
Figure 2. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 02:44 UTC Tuesday, February 14, 2012. The cyclone was still a well-organized Category 2 storm at this time, five hours after landfall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Comment 282
I guess that's what they call the spaghetti models? ;)
First post is from JapanTimes.... Looking for the 2nd one...
Link
Link
this is my background
i will never forget
Magnitude
6.0
Date-Time
Wednesday, February 15, 2012 at 03:31:20 UTC
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 07:31:20 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
43.536°N, 127.381°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
OFF THE COAST OF OREGON
Distances
245 km (152 miles) WNW (282°) from Bandon, OR
249 km (155 miles) W (276°) from Barview, OR
250 km (155 miles) WNW (291°) from Port Orford, OR
327 km (203 miles) NW (308°) from Crescent City, CA
436 km (271 miles) WSW (241°) from Portland, OR
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 19.7 km (12.2 miles); depth +/- 6.2 km (3.9 miles)
Parameters
NST=205, Nph=211, Dmin=282.8 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp=180°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usb00080ib
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 02/14/2012 at 7:34PM PST
At 7:31 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 14, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 5.9 occurred off the coast of Oregon .
The magnitude is such that a tsunami IS NOT EXPECTED. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.
The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the appropriate regional seismic network.
For real, the amount of moderate earthquakes is a little unsettling.
It is..... IF a big one happens soon then it would be confirmation of impending DOOM.
Ecspecially a shallow 6, make it a 6.5 and put it under a heavily populated area and there are major problems.
Although is sounds exagerated or distorted, 2nd post allegations, can be cross verified in enenews.com, fairewinds.com, fukushima-dairy.com, japan times.com and many other sites looking to expose the hidden truth of that tragic accident... Data in the following video comes from farmers, bloggers, workers NOT from the government....
Link
Time will expose the thruth... in the form of cancers, deaths and long term nuclear contamination....
What about some lung particles from Seattle and Boston? Anyhow that's a public health issue, not a personal health issue.....
not DOOM...more likely a dormant volcano maybe, just maybe waking up....:D
Plates are moving so something has to give. A small steady shift is better than no motion.
LOOOOL.
Sup canes hows it goin?
Hydrogen explosion my rear.
That video is a disaster.
The levels of cesium that are in those towns would take about 100 years to decay down to the U.S. nuke plant standards he cited, neglecting the fact that some of it is probably getting washed away into rivers and streams and into the ocean anyway.
Goin' great dude, how about you?
Doin some astrophysics homework, but besides that im wonderful haha
Very true, they always tried to sell the idea and make believe that it was a hydrogen explosion.... (no 2) Bs... This is catastrophic and there is a real high posibility now that the next quake will collapse what is left....
Study warns of another nuclear disaster at Fukushima Daiichi — Likely to be directly disturbed by large quakes (Full Paper)
Link
This is mine...LOL We ARE a bunch of weather nerds! :D
Posted by Mochizuki on February 14th, 2012 No Comments
They are concerned that plume flies from Japan to America.
Though it is not sure that it's from Japan, they measured 3.7 times higher level of radiation from snow in St. Louis than usual on 2/13/2012.
Selection of automated
news feeds from various alternative websites
covering the Fukushima / nuclear topics.
What's going on under north latitude 37.0 east longitude140.7 ?
Problem is everyone has to get here to fl. I have two brothers planning on driving down leaving Boston late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning. And another flying out of Boston Wednesday morning.
I can't figure out the timing based on our local forcast. Maybe it's not a problem. If the system is supposed to come through FL on Saturday I guess it will be over and done with before they travel????
Like post 312 video stated "In the US it is going to be a public health issue, meaning that it is unknown right now, who's going to be affected... Time will tell... statistics will show the increase in cancer and deaths as time goes by....
Thanks for that LINK....
Should be out of there by then RMM, that storm is supposed to hit Florida Saturday and leave Maine by Monday so you should be fine, airports are usually good about clearing out after a day. Plus its only one model run so anything could change, but for now it still looks good.
Wish against and you shall receive.
This stuff matters. Learn more Dismiss
Shoulda came down, that was a 70's and cloudy day! was a beautiful day!
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 15 2012
=====================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.5S 84.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 14.8S 82.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.2S 80.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 15.5S 77.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.7S 74.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
Additional Information
=======================
The system is a small size one, with a fluctuating structure shows temporally a banding pattern on the SSMIS data of 2114 PM UTC. The 1554 PM UTC ASCAT swath is not centered but we can see that low level clockwise circulation can be about 30 knots.
The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system.
System might continue to track rapidly then more slowly west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.
The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 15 2012
================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 22.4S 42.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 16 knots.
Near Gale Force Winds
======================
20 NM radius from the center
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 23.6S 41.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.2S 40.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.7S 39.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.2S 38.0E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
Additional Information
=====================
Ex-Giovanna begins to move away from the western coast of Madagascar by tracking southwestward. low level circulation center is now visible on satellite imagery. Convection is organized into banding pattern.
System is expected to keep on tracking southwestward within the next 24-36 hours on the northwestern edge of low to mid-level high pressures centered in the south of Réunion island. It might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow).
Numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement for the track during the next 36 hours. Beyond, they are discrepancies. Some numerical weather prediction models forecast a westward track, or even northwestward, towards the Mozambique coast. Others forecast a west southwestward track and even a eastward recurve on Saturday according to ECMWF numerical weather prediction model. Present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, ECMWF ensemble forecast is also highly dispersed at this hour.
This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models and so a steering flow located at more or less high levels (low level high pressures in the south of system according to westward tracks). Forecast uncertainty is important at 48 hours and beyond.
On Saturday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.
The next tropical cyclone advisory on TD GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #26
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 15 2012
===================================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.3S 177.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports
Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM in the eastern semi-circle
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant
40 NM in the northwestern quadrant
Organization has decreased slightly in past 24 hours. Low level circulation was partially exposed few hours ago but is now under dense overcast. Convection remains persistent. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear remains low. Sea surface temperatures around 27C.
Dvorak analysis based on central dense overcast pattern with irregular edge approximately 90 nautical miles diameter, Yielding DT=3.0, PTt=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on DT. However, due to final Dvorak constraints and past 6 hour final Dvorak being 2.0, current final Dvorak will be 2.5,
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S1.0/24 HRS
Most global models agree on a south southwest movement with gradual weakening.
Forecast and Intensity:
=======================
12 HRS: 22.2S 177.7W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.2S 177.9W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 25.0S 177.2W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Snow lover says WOOT!!!!!
Could snow in the Southern Appalachians though!
Hey I have a snowplow business, very little snow, we call years like this thinning of the herd!
All those guys going out spending thousands thinking they will get rich, then no snow!
Glad I don't have to depend on snow money to survive!
The older I get the more I hate cold weather and snow.
Now I know why all of the old foggees go to warm climates in the winter!
Thank you!
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