Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
|
| Posted by: Shaun Tanner, 15 04, 2012 06:50 GMT | +36 |

| Permalink | A A A |
|
|
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
|
Tropical Blogs
Tropical Weather Stickers®
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index
You and I both wish it would. The atmosphere has a nice cap over it right now. All these damn chemical plants lol
Vortex Signature near Victoria. Hook has formed.
F0 62 dBZ 49,000 ft. 66 kg/m² 60% chance 100% chance 1.50 in. 16 knots W (269)
Yeah, this one definitely needs a warning
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
636 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SOUTHWESTERN VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR FANNIN...OR 7 MILES EAST OF GOLIAD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FANNIN...
COLETO CREEK PARK...
SCHROEDER...
OAK VILLAGE...
MISSION VALLEY...
SAXET LAKES...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
&&
LAT...LON 2867 9685 2852 9726 2874 9742 2889 9734
2887 9730 2897 9717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 237DEG 14KT 2869 9727
$$
GW
I agree... NWS is taking a big risk by only issuing a severe thunderstorm warning
I agree too...this storm looks VERY BAD on radar...this could escalate....
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND ADJACENT
COASTAL PLAIN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152329Z - 160100Z
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.
LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERSECTION OF AN
INLAND ADVANCING SEA-BREEZE AND SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING WEAK COLD
FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN THE INITIATING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA. THIS
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FAIRLY LARGE CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION. AIDED BY A FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER
SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...BUT THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL COULD
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY A LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURST...MAINLY
WEST/NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI THROUGH 00-02Z.
..KERR.. 04/15/2012
Lol... They issued that only becuase of the Victoria storm... There's nothing else there!
Figure somebody would have seen it by now.
Well it isnt moving all to fast.
I'd be careful....there is another supercell about to pop up just west of the Victoria supercell if current radar trends continue. Whatever stabilizing atmospheric cap was over far south Texas has been busted by daytime heating...and now we are having strong...moist convective updrafts in a sheared atmosphere (you know what that means).
Nothing too major, just highs in the 60s.
Rotation weak...
Yea but its been weak
The beginnings of "Invest 91L"
And I see another brand new supercell just to the SW of the Victoria supercell...look just south of Golad, TX. This second new supercell doesn't look as good as the Victoria one so far....
Still very disorganized.
Certainly is not happening over the Houston area. Cap is holding strong so far
The lead storm will choke it off... It's pretty unlikely the second storm will become the dominant one of the two
I think it will take over now though
Uhhhh lets see, i think the inflow boundaries are coming from the south, so i dont think that the northern cell would choke it of but i very wellmay be wrong
The western convection is some clouds produced by a shortwave upper trough swinging SE within the larger upper trough/low that's about to cut-off. The center of surface low pressure is still along the frontal zone near the eastern convective mass, and its going to take about 48 hours from now before that frontal surface low begins to look like a subtropical cyclone.
Look for the eastern convective mass to start organizing into bands about the frontal surface low (which is still now well-defined in satellite pictures at this time).
That western flank that has convection flaring up slightly is where the system is actually, 31 N, 51 W.
The "hook" north of 30 degrees is not the system,its to the south and you can barely see it on water vapor.
Icant post a water vapor, the computer wont let me but golook for yourself.
It's still very frontal in nature so even if it does blow up convection it won't really matter.
For all we know, both could do something. We had a setup similar near Salina, KS late last evening. One tornado passed just south of Salina...and then the second supercell right behind it ended up making its own tornado and passed over Salina.
Nah.
What you see on water vapor is usually an upper level low or an upper level high.
Surface lows show up best on visible and shortwave infrared, well, unless they are obscured by upper level disturbances.
Edit:
Well, it's embedded in dry air anyway.
I guess that might be the LLC after all, but if it is, it's weak as hell and surrounded by dry air in every direction.
that'll be where the center sets up.
It almost looks like the two in TX have merged
Okay, its barely visible just south of that low, i may be wrong but i dont know.
The Azores high will cut the system from the frontal system tomorrow, Tomorrow is the true key to the formation of the storm.
Yes thats what im talking about, it just gotspinning.
Well, lets sit back and find out.
Poll Time!
This area of interst will...
A. Not be designated as anything
B. Designated as invest
C. Subtropical Depression One
D. Subtropical Storm Alberto
I say B
I dont think thats the low, its just south of that, surrounded by dry air. its pretty weak but i think thats the LLC
I'm not answering until tomorrow, remind me then, and i'll answer...
Viewing: 401 - 451
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 — Blog Index