U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good afternoon new blogger who I bet has never been on this site before (wink)
Good afternoon to everyone else as well...
Pretty amazing how quiet the severe weather season has been lately... Not much threat today either:
Next weeks low will not be tropical in nature. It will be a baroclinic area of low pressure that develops over the Gulf and then redevelops off the SE coast of the US. It will bring with it very beneficial rains to some drought stricken areas.
Unfortunately, the accuracy of spatial precipitation forecasts goes down as we get into the summer-type weather patterns. More rainfall is convective and driven by the location of outflow boundaries and areas that reach the convective temp. Some slight changes in the placement of storms one day can lead to drastic changes over a few day period, entirely messing up forecasts for a 5-day total.
This next batch of heavier rainfall potential seems to come from cut-off low in the SW US; the more organized nature of the system might suggest a slightly better forecast skill.
right click on the left side of the radar where it is black and choose copy image location and then paste that into the image menu above where you type your comments.
TY..will give it a try
Thanks GeogiaStormZ :)
you can animate it as well.
Also, if you change the code that you have pasted, you can make severe=1 so that is shows warnings, etc.
1 is yes, 0 is no.
and I dont think if I recalled correctly that it was picked up by the models..
Im sorry but I have to disagree..that was not part of a low..here is a model run..it transition on its own on the east coast of Florida and then became a Low after it started exited into the eastern atlantic
Link
What is "maybe'?? 10
what, this?
This far out and it wont verify.
It would be a nice TS if it did though.
980mb is your average cat1
Allright, pcola. You did it.
And it gets...next "good" Alberto?
Boy is it nice seeing that... Even if it won't happen :)
If not, don't worry... This is just the long range GFS
That great eye wall shot sends shivers up my spine; that particular shot was probably about 10 minutes before it hit the house I was living in at the time near Quail Roost Drive.......Fortunately, I was in Northern Miami with my Parents at this time (with no power) and very little damage North of the Airport which you can see in this shot. Very compact perfect storm.
A) Homegrown
B) Cape Verde
C) Hybrid of both
D) Neither
Given that she was formed from the midlevel remnants of TD 10 (which I would consider a Cape Verde system), and a general tropical wave.
Must be Cuba... That's the second run in the last three that's had a storm go straight over the island
Hi Grothar. That is the best excample of an inactive season doing harm with only one of the few that formed. Is always better to be prepared,even if the forecasts by the experts call for an average season.
It was of Cape Verde origins but it didn't really form until it got here so I would say A or maybe C
Hey, Hydrus. Remember when it weakened and almost dissipated? Many let their guard down and didn't realize it had intensified.
Hurricane Andrew, 1992
Storm Lifecycle
A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on August 14, and organized into a tropical depression on the 16th while located about halfway between the Windward Islands and the coast of Africa. It moved to the west-northwest, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Andrew on the 17th. After reaching winds of 50 mph, strong southwesterly shear weakened the storm, and by August 20 it weakened to a minimal storm with a pressure of 1015 mbar. It bypassed the Lesser Antilles completely, and turned to the west in response to the building of a high pressure system to the north. Upon turning to the west, a trough of low pressure positioned to the southwest of Andrew created an environment with little vertical shear and well-defined outflow. More The storm quickly intensified due to its small size, and became a hurricane on August 22. Andrew rapidly intensified under ideal conditions for development, and on the 23rd the hurricane peaked with winds of 175 mph. It crossed the Bahamas at that intensity, weakened slightly, and re-intensified to a 165 mph Category 5 hurricane before making landfall near Homestead, Florida.
Yep, 75% of the storms that formed, hit the CONUS.
An American tragedy: 50th Anniversary of Hurricane Audrey ...by DRM.
Fifty years ago--on the night of June 26, 1957--residents of Cameron, Louisiana slept uneasily. Cameron, population 3,000, sat on the coast just above sea level, about 30 miles east of Texas. Hurricane Audrey roared across the dark waters of the Gulf of Mexico towards Cameron that night, lashing the coast with high winds and heavy rain. Many residents had heeded calls to evacuate from Audrey's 100 mph winds and predicted 5-9 foot storm surge that afternoon. But the old timers, familiar with how the surrounding dunes had protected Cameron in the past, stayed put. It was, after all, June, and severe hurricanes in June were almost unheard of. Besides, the storm was not expected to hit until the following afternoon, so there was still time to evacuate in the morning if things looked bad. The remarkable mass exodus of thousands of crawfish from the marshes surrounding Cameron that night apparently did not concern the old timers, who figured they had more sense than crawdads. But the crawdads could apparently sense what the old timers could not--sea surface temperatures were a full 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in the Gulf of Mexico, with a large upper level anticyclone bringing near-zero wind shear over Audrey. This perfect recipe for rapid intensification meant that Audrey was not going to be a mere Category 2 hurricane at landfall. An additional ingredient unfavorable for intensification--the approach of a trough of low pressure with increased wind shear--would not occur in time to weaken the storm. However, the approaching trough did bring an increase in steering current winds at mid- and high levels of the atmosphere, which doubled the forward speed of Audrey overnight.
The GFS has been running that everytime.
LOL!
ECMWF MODEL
Because the origins of the "K" storm of '05 was due to the interaction of a tropical wave and the remnants of TD 10 of that season, I would put my answer as C.
Now that's funny, I don't care who you are!
You'll be waiting a while becuase the ECMWF doesn't go out to 360 hours :)
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