U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record
The past twelve months were the warmest twelve months in U.S. history, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Tuesday, in their monthly "State of the Climate" report. Temperatures in the contiguous U.S. during May 2011 - April 2012 broke the previous record for warmest 12-month period, set November 1999 - October 2000, by 0.1°F. The past twelve months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer, 4th warmest winter, and warmest March on record. Twenty-two states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional nineteen states were top ten warm. NOAA said that the January - April 2012 period was also the warmest January - April period since record keeping began in 1895. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and smashed the previous record set in 2006 by an unusually large margin--1.6°F.
Figure 1. The ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. The average temperature of 45.4°F during January - April 2012 was the warmest on record: 5.4°F above the 20th century average for the period, and was 1.6°F above the previous record set in 2006. January - April temperatures have been rising at about 1.9°F per century since 1895. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
April 2012: 3rd warmest on record
April 2012 was the third warmest April in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. But what's really remarkable about April was that eight states--Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia--had average April temperatures cooler than their March temperatures, even though their April temperatures were still above the long-term average for the month. These statistics show just how remarkably warm March 2012 was. Most extreme was Illinois, where April 2012 temperatures ranked in the top 20% for warmest Aprils, yet were cooler than March 2012 temperatures.
Figure 3. Temperature rankings for April 2012 in the Contiguous U.S. Ten states had a top-ten warmest April, and no states were cooler than average. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 4. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - April shows that 2012 had the most extreme weather on record.
Most extreme January - April on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), an index that tracks the highest 10 percent and lowest 10 percent of extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 42% during the January-April period, over twice the average value, and the greatest on record. Remarkably, 82% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically, and 68% had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%, with records going back to 1910. The previous records were 56% (2000) and 57% (1992) for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions during January - April was 19%, which was the 17th greatest since 1910. Extremes in precipitation as computed by the CEI were near average for the January - April period.
Jeff Masters
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Do not quote trolls.
Do not respond to trolls.
Do MINUS them, then SHOW them, then flag them !
Otherwise, you are doing what they want you to do.
My first thought upon reading the blog this morning is: "I wonder if the trolls will ever figure out that when they troll one person repeatedly, it just gets them reported faster?"
Wise words here.
(edited to remove pictures based on feedback)
This year's drought:
Last time we had a drought, Governor Sonny Perdue prayed for rain and we got too much.
Be careful what you wish for, those in drought, you just might get it.
Nah, they have 2 question marks, means they're clueless which they've been on this entire event.
It's typical early in the season for inland to get the rains and not the coast. We need to get the sea breezes active closer to the coast. Agree with you that we could see some rain next week.
One troll is all it takes.
The NWS is (wisely) holding off on issuing a flood watch, since there are quite a few solutions coming up for how the rain will set up. One model (3km WRF) shows a squall line, but the GFS and ECMWF are both showing more widespread rain, maybe with an MCS involved.
That said, per the NWS, the flash flood guidance is actually higher than I personally expected, as they think the ground can handle 3-5 inches in a 6 hour period. I was expecting the guidance to come in closer to 2-4 inches, so that was a bit surprising.
Either way, we definitely need the rain. Points west need it more, though (and thankfully, they're getting it).
As opposed to one question mark, which indicates they just aren't sure.
..HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ISOLD
TORNADOES TO THE TX CSTL PLN THIS EVE. PARTS OF S CNTRL TX TO THE
CNTRL TX GULF CST MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK AS THE MOST LIKELY
STORM MODE AND AREA OF AFTN STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOME MORE APPARENT.
I tell you what, if it wasn't for that under 2 inches on Monday I'd be ticked
More likely means "What I've been watching recently is too WEIRD to base a confident prediction upon... but here's my best shot anyways."
In all seriousness, as a government agency why would you question your own call? to even post that out to the public is beyond words. You either know or you don't. If you aren't sure, don't post it.
I noticed in a previous thread you said "Hi", sorry I didn't respond. I don't really have time for a whole lot of online posting these days. So, hi back. ;-)
Regarding this blog entry, what is the error range on the "average US temperature"? Sampling doesn't occur uniformly, and is fairly sparse. What was the error range in the 1920s-1930s, which included some awfully warm years?
It should also be pointed out that globally the average temperature wasn't at all extreme over the last twelve months. US weather doesn't equal global climate, eh?
At least it's comforting to note that global sea ice is currently well above the satellite-era baseline. :-)
Global trends in tropical cyclone risk
Nope, those pictures are closer to an homage to trolling BECAUSE they show only that you are paying way too much attention to a troll AND wasting bandwidth in response to trolling.
The first showing on the site is cute if the idea is fresh.
All repetitions including thru subsequent blogs are merely displays that trolls can manipulate your output... which is the objective they seek as proof that they're superior to us normal folk.
There are sites (that I won't name) in which trolls score prestige points by bragging to each other about the techniques they use to derail blogs.
Thank you for the constructive feedback. Based on this (and several other pieces of feedback), I've removed the pics.
surely the content did not violate, just some folk still up to no good.
Heat Index 117.0
Rel Humidity 92%
I'm waiting for that first thunderstorm.
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