U.S. experiences warmest 12-month period on record--again
Thanks in part to the historic heat wave that demolished thousands of high temperature records at the end of June, temperatures in the contiguous U.S. were the warmest on record over the past twelve months and for the year-to-date period of January - June, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. June 2012 was the 14th warmest June on record, so was not as extreme overall as March 2012 (first warmest March on record), April (third warmest April), or May (second warmest May.) However, temperatures were warm enough in June to set a new U.S. record for hottest 12-month period for the third straight month, narrowly eclipsing the record set just the previous month. The past thirteen months have featured America's 2nd warmest summer (in 2011), 4th warmest winter, and warmest spring on record. Twenty-six states were record warm for the 12-month period, and an additional sixteen states were top-ten warm. The year-to-date period of January - June was the warmest on record by an unusually large margin--1.2°F.
Figure 1. This time series shows the five warmest years that the contiguous U.S. has experienced, and how the year-to-date temperature evolved each month throughout those years. The time series also shows the 2012 year-to-date temperature through June, which was the warmest first half of any year on record for the lower 48. The 2012 data are still preliminary. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Figure 2. Four of the top-ten warmest 12-month periods in the contiguous U.S. since 1895 have occurred since April 2011. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.
Most extreme January - June period on record
NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, was 44% during the year-to-date January - June period. This is the highest value since CEI record-keeping began in 1910, and more than twice the average value. Remarkably, 83% of the contiguous U.S. had maximum temperatures that were in the warmest 10% historically during the first six months of 2012, and 70% of the U.S. of the U.S. had warm minimum temperatures in the top 10%. The percentage area of the U.S. experiencing top-10% drought conditions was 20%, which was the 14th greatest since 1910. Extremes in 1-day spring heavy precipitation events were near average.
Figure 3. NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI) for January - June shows that 2012 has had the most extreme first six months of the year on record, with 44% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% extreme weather.
Tuesday Webinar on the future of extreme weather impacts on business
I'm presenting a 12-minute Webinar talk on the future of weather-related disasters at 2 pm EDT Tuesday July 10. If you want to register (it's free) and listen in, visit the propertycasualty360.com web site. The title of the webinar is, "The Year-Round CAT Season: Is Your Business Prepared for Increasingly Frequent Severe Weather?"
"New McCarthyism" targets climate scientists
Bill Blakemore with ABC News has an interesting five-part interview with climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann, where Dr. Mann explains how a "New McCarthyism" is targeting climate scientists. I reviewed Dr. Mann's excellent book, "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars", earlier this year.
A 1 in 1.6 million event?
I originally wrote in this post that "Each of the 13 months from June 2011 through June 2012 ranked among the warmest third of their historical distribution for the first time in the 1895 - present record. According to NCDC, the odds of this occurring randomly during any particular month are 1 in 1,594,323. Thus, we should only see one more 13-month period so warm between now and 124,652 AD--assuming the climate is staying the same as it did during the past 118 years."
It has been pointed out to me that the calculation of a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurrence (based on taking the number 1/3 and raising it to the 13th power) would be true only if each month had no correlation to the next month. Since weather patterns tend to persist, they are not truly random from one month to the next. Thus, the odds of such an event occurring are greater than 1 in 1.6 million--but are still very rare. I appreciate hearing from those of you who wrote to point out a correction was needed.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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In 1994 Rosa's Remnants Rained... I got nothing else continue... lol
Downside is no TV. OMG-NO TV! I am screwed.
Pewa panicked
Unala upwelled
Wali was a waste
Ana absolutely looks awful
Later Baha.
Is this what you people have been doing all day?
Pretty much. :-D
Not on the Atlantic side at the moment. Folks just waiting on a "surprise" storm somewhere or for the long-term models to start developing waves coming off of Africa...............
..Nuttin'
She still is lookin' good maybe still 130MPH, bye!
Have you saved money doing that? or have you not made up the cost in saved electric bills yet?
Uh? You got that from VR46L's comments? Really?
Temperature
86 °F
Feels Like 97 °F
Wind 25mph
Very nice day to go to the beach.
Well, thank you Ma'am. For the most part, I understand and respect the messages here. What gets me is the arrogance with which some feel the need to push their opinions. Mostly though, I'm just an old guy trying to learn a little and have some fun...
000
FXUS62 KMFL 101816
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012
.DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS N FL WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FCST MAINTAINING A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES FOR MID JULY. EMBEDDED IN THE
EAST FLOW WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGHS
INTERACTING WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE TIMING OF
EACH INDIVIDUAL TROUGH IS UNCERTAIN BUT THIS TYPE OF PATTERN
SUGGESTS NOCTURNAL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
THE MAINLAND WITH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST BEING THE MAIN
FOCUS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OFF THE
CAROLINA CST AND HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. A
TUTT LIKE FEATURE WILL ALSO TRACK WEST ACROSS CUBA AND THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND. AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF S FL WILL
MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE A TRANSPORT OF
MOIST FLOW ACROSS S FL WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
Na its more to do with using electric...which by enlarge uses fossil fuels
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 13 2012 - 12Z TUE JUL 17 2012
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST FEW CYCLES IN
DEPICTING A NEAR NORMAL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...WITH THE JET STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS FOR THE CONUS...WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE ANOMALIES
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. CONCERNING THE DETAILS...THE
00Z GFS IS CONSIDERED THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH SLOW PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES DAYS 5-7/SUN-TUE...WITH THE 12Z RUN ALSO CONSIDERED
TOO SLOW IN THE NORTHWEST BUT MORE IN PHASE WITH OTHER GUIDANCE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. OTHERWISE...MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INCLUDING SHOWING PERSISTENCE OR SLOW CHANGES
AT BEST FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE SPLIT NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
FAVORS EARLY SEASON MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...
PARTICULARLY DAYS 3-5...ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY WARM CORRIDOR
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 7. IN THE EAST...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THAN ACCOMPANIES THE SLOW LIFTING AND
WEAKENING OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENT BERMUDA HIGH MAY PREVENT THE
MOISTURE FROM INFLUENCING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Fort Bend County in southeast Texas...
northern Galveston County in southeast Texas...
Chambers County in southeast Texas...
southeastern Harris County in southeast Texas...
Brazoria County in southeast Texas...
Matagorda County in southeast Texas...
* until 345 PM CDT
* at 130 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated a persistent area
of training rainfall centered along a line from roughly
Matagorda to West Columbia to Manvel to League City to Oak Island.
While rainfall rates for much of this area isn't particularly high
for southeast Texas... we are beginning to see pockets of 1.5 inch
per hour rates at times. This is falling on increasingly saturated
grounds and may begin to runoff and create minor street and feeder
Road flooding.
* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include
Pasadena... Baytown... League City... Texas City... Pearland... La
Porte... Friendswood... Deer Park... Alvin... Bay city... Angleton...
Dickinson... South Houston... La Marque... Santa Fe... Bacliff...
Palacios... Webster... West Columbia... Nassau Bay... Taylor Lake
Village... Sweeny... Fresno... El Lago... Manvel... Winnie... Brazoria...
wild Peach Village... Kemah... and Anahuac.
A thunderstorm in Florida?! Say it ain't so.
Another weak min trof going around the high up north?
Yea, and a ridge supposed to build off the Carolinas, with heights rising there and for Florida, I'd say Gulf bound with a WNW track
nuttin, got an ULL to it's north
I don't live in Wilmington anymore, but these are the kind of storms that flood that place QUICK!!
I don't know what part of town you reside, but I would bet New Centre Dr and Racine are gonna be underwater very soon.... be careful down there today
New Center Drive is notorius for flooding..Jim Cantore actually filmed from there when Ex Nicole came to town..
It looks like night there..
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