Possible storm might form off North Carolina Coast
2011 has been fairly busy in regards to features with potential to develop into Tropical Storms. It looks very likely that this trend will continue. We currently have had the formation of only one single storm (Arlene) in June. I continue to forecast 3-5 storms June/July with 3 this month alone. I have been stating this since the End of June. Atlantic Sea Surface Temps are well above average especially in the Gulf and Caribbean. Wind Shear has also decreased dramatically over the past couple of weeks in the Atlantic.
Some of the most reliable computer models are forecasting several interesting tropical waves and tropical lows over the next couple of weeks. My immediate concern is for the possible formation of a storm off the North Carolina coast on Sunday/Monday. It is shown in the GFS (T, PMSL) 12z run in the following image
Below shows a 1004 MB low off the NC coast
This feature is expected to move South West and make landfall along the SE Georgia or South Carolina coast.
GFS 18z 120 Hours with storm off South Carolina coast
another look at it
I also will be watching an area in the Eastern Gulf and while it doesn't appear that any of the models hint at "formation" there is a HIGH (H) stationed to the north which could help spin something up. There is another area of concern that Jeff Masters has mentioned in the South West Gulf Sunday/Monday but I am not sure why I am not so fond of that idea. I will comment more of these areas in my next blog.
Beyond Next Week
Things could get very interesting later towards the end of the month. There appears to be a couple of strong tropical waves that will emerge off Africa and one of these might develop and head towards Miami. Once we reach August, We are starting to get into the part of the season which is seasoned for Cape V storms.
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